Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 20 April 2015


Psephologist UK 2015

Headlines – If there has been any change following the debates and the launch of the manifestos, it has been an increase in support for the challenger parties. Plaid Cymru have increased their projected share of the vote and haul of MPs. UKIP’s share of the vote has stabilised after falling for a few weeks. But the biggest shift is north of the border, were the SNP are coming closer to a clean sweep.

Election Forecast

UK Polling Report

Bet 2015

Conservatives

281 seats (No change) | 34.2% vote (+0.1% vote) 260 seats (No change) | 34% vote (No change) 278 seats (+1 seat)

Labour

275 seats (-2 seats) | 32.8% vote (No change) 300 seats (No change) | 34% vote  (No change) 265 seats (-10 seats)

Lib Dems

 26 seats (-2 seats) | 12.6% vote (-0.7%) 18 seats (No change) | 9% vote (+1% vote) 27 seats (-3 seats)

UKIP

 1 seat (No change) | 10.5% vote (+0.2% vote) 15% vote (+1% vote) 3 seats (No change)

Greens

 1 seat (No change) | 3.9% vote (+0.2)  5% vote (No change) 1 seat (No change)

SNP

43 seats (+2 seat) | 3.5% vote (+0.1%)  46 seats (No change) | 3% vote (No change) 53 seats (+12 seats)

Others

 23 seats (+2 seats) | 2.5% vote (+0.1% vote)  26 seats (No change) | 3% vote (No change) 23 seats (No change)

There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls.

Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and elections. Please let me know if I’ve got something wrong and I’d be happy to correct where necessary.

Data taken at 13:00 on 16 March 2015 from:

Any mistakes in interpretation of the data are mine. I’d be happy to discuss and, if necessary correct.

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