Headlines – If there has been any change following the debates and the launch of the manifestos, it has been an increase in support for the challenger parties. Plaid Cymru have increased their projected share of the vote and haul of MPs. UKIP’s share of the vote has stabilised after falling for a few weeks. But the biggest shift is north of the border, were the SNP are coming closer to a clean sweep.
Election Forecast |
UK Polling Report |
Bet 2015 |
|
Conservatives |
281 seats (No change) | 34.2% vote (+0.1% vote) | 260 seats (No change) | 34% vote (No change) | 278 seats (+1 seat) |
Labour |
275 seats (-2 seats) | 32.8% vote (No change) | 300 seats (No change) | 34% vote (No change) | 265 seats (-10 seats) |
Lib Dems |
26 seats (-2 seats) | 12.6% vote (-0.7%) | 18 seats (No change) | 9% vote (+1% vote) | 27 seats (-3 seats) |
UKIP |
1 seat (No change) | 10.5% vote (+0.2% vote) | 15% vote (+1% vote) | 3 seats (No change) |
Greens |
1 seat (No change) | 3.9% vote (+0.2) | 5% vote (No change) | 1 seat (No change) |
SNP |
43 seats (+2 seat) | 3.5% vote (+0.1%) | 46 seats (No change) | 3% vote (No change) | 53 seats (+12 seats) |
Others |
23 seats (+2 seats) | 2.5% vote (+0.1% vote) | 26 seats (No change) | 3% vote (No change) | 23 seats (No change) |
There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls.
Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and elections. Please let me know if I’ve got something wrong and I’d be happy to correct where necessary.
Data taken at 13:00 on 16 March 2015 from:
Any mistakes in interpretation of the data are mine. I’d be happy to discuss and, if necessary correct.