Election 2015 – predictions


Election 2015 predictions

So, that was that. Few pundits or pollsters showered themselves in glory. How did I do? Not very well! More Mystic Meg than Nostradamus.

The Conservatives will win the most MPs, but will fall far short of a majority.

The Conservatives did win the most MPs, but they also won a majority.

The Conservatives will win 290 seats with a share of the vote above 34%.

The Conservatives won 331 seats. Their 36.9% share of the vote was comfortably over the 34% prediction.

The Labour Party will win 270 seats with a share of the vote below 33%.

The Labour Party’s share of the vote was below 33% at 30.4%. They won far fewer seats than predicted at 232.

The Liberal Democrat vote will not completely collapse. They’ll win 25 seats with 12.5% of the vote.

The Liberal Democrat vote did completely collapse. In the end they won 8 seats on 7.9% of the vote.

The SNP will win 50 seats or more in Scotland, leaving just a couple for the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives and a handful for Labour.

The SNP did even better than predicted – winning 56 seats and leaving just one each for the Liberal Democrats, the Conservatives and Labour.

Plaid Cymru will ride a nationalist ‘wave’ to win 4 seats in Parliament.

Nope. No nationalist wave and just 3 seats for Plaid.

UKIP will win two seats (Clacton and Thurrock). I don’t think they will win in Thanet South.

Nigel Farage did not win in Thanet South. UKIP didn’t win in Thurrock either. They did, however, retain one seat in Clacton.

The Greens will win one seat, retaining Brighton Pavilion.

Yep! Despite a strong challenge in Bristol West, the Greens retained their single seat.

Turnout will be high by recent standards, if not exactly spectacular. I think it will be just under 70% (65.1% in 2010, 61.4% in 2005).

Turnout was higher than in 2010, but not by as much as predicted. It came in at 66.1%.

There will be a left of centre government, with the SNP critical as either a coalition partner or in a supply and confidence capacity.

Nope. A Conservative majority government is now in place.

Ed Miliband will be the next Prime Minister.

Nope. David Cameron continues as Prime Minister. Ed Miliband (along with Nick Clegg and Nigel Farage) resigned as party leader.

The swing against the Conservatives will be more pronounced in London than in the rest of the UK.

Yep, but not by nearly as much as predicted.

Labour will retain Hampstead and Kilburn. They will take Battersea.

Labour retained Hampstead and Kilburn with an increased majority.

Labour did not come anywhere close to winning Battersea. The Conservatives increased their share of the vote and majority.

A very local prediction – the Conservatives will hang in by the skin of their teeth in South Ribble (my old home constituency), despite a strong Labour challenge.

The Conservatives retained South Ribble, and did so comfortably. They increased their total and share of the vote and majority.

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