Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 2 April 2015

Psephologist UK 2015

Headlines – The Leaders’ debate takes place this evening. For two hours from 8 pm, the nation will be glued to ITV to see seven politicians battle it out.

Well, maybe not. A few million will watch the whole thing, and everyone else will see edited highlights, a couple of vaguely amusing gifs and some snarky Twitter comments.

This is a snapshot of the poll of poll of polls before the impact of the debate. Last time, Nick Clegg saw a significant bounce. Will anyone shower themselves in debating glory this time?

At the moment, both Election Forecast and Bet 2015 have the two main parties neck and neck. They also show . This has not yet filtered through to UK Polling Report’s poll of polls, which still shows Labour comfortably ahead of the Conservatives.

Unless Cameron has a nightmare in Salford this evening, expect this gap to narrow significantly over the next week.

Election Forecast

UK Polling Report

Bet 2015

Conservatives

282 seats (-4 seats) | 34.6% vote (+0.1% vote) 250 seats (No change) | 33% vote (No change) 276 seats (No change)

Labour

278 seats (+1 seats) | 33.0% vote (+ 0.6% vote) 309 seats (No change) | 34% vote  (No change) 276 seats (No change)

Lib Dems

 26 seats (+1 seat) | 13.5% vote (-0.1%) 19 seats (No change) | 8% vote (No change) 30 seats (-1 seat)

UKIP

 1 seat (No change) | 9.5% vote (-0.4% vote) 14% vote (No change) 3 seats (No change)

Greens

 1 seat (No change) | 3.7% vote (-0.1%))  5% vote (No change) 1 seat (No change)

SNP

40 seats (+1 seat) | 3.3% vote (+0.1%)  46 seats (-1 seat) | 3.0% vote (No change) 41 seats (No change)

Others

 22 seats (+1 seat) | 2.5% vote (-0.1% vote)  26 seats (+1 seat) | 3.0% vote (No change) 23 seats (No change)

There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls.

Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and elections. Please let me know if I’ve got something wrong and I’d be happy to correct where necessary.

Data taken at 13:00 on 16 March 2015 from:

Any mistakes in interpretation of the data are mine. I’d be happy to discuss and, if necessary correct.

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