US Presidential election – weekly polling round up – I


Psephological - US Presidential Election 2016

As the Grand Old Party winds down in Cleveland, Ohio, Republican supporters can take some comfort from the direction of polls in recent days. Although most polls and predictions continue to give Hillary Clinton a decent lead, it isn’t quite the commanding or comfortable position that she held a few weeks ago.

More worrying for the Democrats is that the polls have narrowed in the key battleground states that will determine the presidency. Trump is playing well in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida. The Democrats will be hoping to rally their Pennsylvania and rustbelt base at their Philadelphia convention next week.
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WHO WILL WIN THE PRESIDENCY?

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Currently predicting: President Clinton

NATIONAL POLL TRENDS

HuffPost Pollster – trendlines

Clinton 43.5% (+0.4%) / 40.6% (+0.5%) Trump

Wall Street Journal

Clinton 44.0% (+0.9%) / 41.3% (+0.9%) Trump

ELECTION FORECAST – CHANCE OF WINNING

FiveThirtyEight – polls only

Clinton 60.2% (-3.9%)  / 39.7% (+3.9) Trump

FiveThirtyEight – polls plus forecast

Clinton 59.8% (-3.9%) / 40.2% (+3.9%) Trump

ELECTORAL COLLEGE TRENDING

Figures in the dark colour reflect strong trends for the candidate, the lighter shade indicates a slighter but still clear lean to the candidate.

Tending Trump | 180 (-11)  

Toss-up | 131 (No change)

Tending Clinton | 227 (+11)

ELECTORAL COLLEGE SNAPSHOT

Taking all states as won by whoever is currently in the lead in the state poll. If a state is tied the electoral college votes go to the previous poll leader.

Clinton | 332 (+11)

Trump  | 206 (-11)

A candidate needs to get at least 270 electoral college votes to take the presidency.

KEY STATE BREAKDOWNS

Current state-wide trending by candidate. Electoral college votes for each state are in brackets. States that move more strongly towards a candidate are removed from this list.

  • Arizona (11) 42.8 (-4.1%) / 46.6 (-0.1%)
  • Colorado (9) 46.4 (-0.6%) / 42.7 (+0.2%)
  • Florida (29) 46.4 (-0.6%) / 46.0 (+0.2%)
  • Iowa (6) 45.8 (-0.5%) / 45.3 (+0.8%)
  • Nevada (6) 45.8 (-2.0%) 44.8 (+2.3%)
  • New Hampshire (4) 44.9 (-1.1%) / 43.9 (+0.4%)
  • North Carolina (15) 46.1 (-0.8%) / 47.1 (+0.4%)
  • Ohio (18) 45.4 (+0.3%)  / 45.0 (+0.5%)
  • Pennsylvania (20) 45.9 (-0.5%)  / 43.7 (+0.3%)  
  • Virginia (13) 46.5 (-0.8%) / 46.5 (+1.2%)

Data for this analysis comes from:

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