Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 28 March 2015

Psephologist UK 2015

Headlines – The Labour Party’s position has been consolidated in the latest batch of polls. Only Election Forecast is currently predicting that the Conservatives will emerge from May’s ballot as the largest party. Ed Milliband’s recent comment that the two parties were ‘neck and neck’ is borne out by the polls and predictions.

If the two main parties succeed in attracting two-thirds of the votes cast, they will be doing better than they did in 2010. The remaining one-third of votes is being shared much more widely, seemingly at the expense of the Liberal Democrats (whose 23% of the vote in 2010 risks plunging into single figures).

Election Forecast

UK Polling Report

Bet 2015

Conservatives

286 seats (No change) | 34.5% vote (+0.1% vote) 250 seats (-10 seats) | 33% vote (No change) 275 seats (-1 seat)

Labour

277 seats (+1 seats) | 32.4% vote (+ 0.1% vote) 309 seats (+9 seats) | 34% vote  (+1% vote) 276 seats (+3 seats)

Lib Dems

 25 seats (-1 seat) | 13.6% vote (No change) 19 seats (-1 seat) | 8% vote (No change) 31 seats (No change)

UKIP

 1 seat (No change) | 9.9% vote (-0.3% vote) 14% vote (No change) 3 seats (No change)

Greens

 1 seat (No change) | 3.8% vote (No change)  5% vote (-1% vote) 1 seat (No change)

SNP

 39 seats (No change) | 3.2% vote (No change)  47 seats (+7 seats) | 3.0% vote (No change) 41 seats (No change)

Others

 21 seats (No change) | 2.6% vote (+0.5% vote)  25 seats (-5 seats) | 3.0% vote (No change) 23 seats (-2 seats)

There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls.

Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and elections. Please let me know if I’ve got something wrong and I’d be happy to correct where necessary.

Data taken at 13:00 on 16 March 2015 from:

Any mistakes in interpretation of the data are mine. I’d be happy to discuss and, if necessary correct.

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