Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 22 March 2015


Psephologist UK 2015

Headlines – A slight suggestion of movement to the Labour Party in the poll of poll of polls. There is still a huge range of predicted outcomes between the two largest parties – a range of 26 seats for the Conservatives and 27 for the Labour Party.

Election Forecast

UK Polling Report

Bet 2015

Conservatives

286 seats (No change) | 34.4% vote (+0.4% vote) 260 seats (-5 seats) | 33% vote (No change) 276 seats (No change)

Labour

276 seats (+3 seats) | 32.3% vote (+ 0.3% vote) 300 seats (+5 seats) | 33% vote  (+1% vote) 273 seats (-1 seat)

Lib Dems

 26 seats (No change) | 13.6% vote (No change) 20 seats (+1 seat) | 8% vote (+1%) 31 seats (No change)

UKIP

 1 seat (No change) | 10.2% vote (-0.8% vote) 14% vote (-1%) 3 seats (No change)

Greens

 1 seat (No change) | 3.8% vote (-0.1%)  6% vote | No change 1 seat (No change)

SNP

 39 seats (- 3 seats) | 3.2% vote (No change)  40 seats (No change) | 3.0% vote (No change) 41 seats (No change)

Others

 21 seats (No change) | 2.1% vote (-0.5% vote)  30 seats (No change) | 3.0% vote (No change) 25 seats (+2 seats)

There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls.

Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and elections. Please let me know if I’ve got something wrong and I’d be happy to correct where necessary.

Data taken at 13:00 on 16 March 2015 from:

Any mistakes in interpretation of the data are mine. I’d be happy to discuss and, if necessary correct.

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