Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 16 March 2015

Psephologist UK 2015

Headlines No seismic shifts over the weekend, but both Election Forecast and UK Polling Report figures continue to drift towards the middle ground set out in the Bet 2015 forecast.

If this is the case, Election Forecast’s blended model is overstating the Conservative vote and down playing Labour support. UK Polling Report’s focus on polls does the opposite whilst bookies are forecasting a tie for the two main parties.

On interpretation of this is the reluctance of voters to confirm that they will support the governing party and, specifically, the Conservatives (the impact of so called “shy Tories”). This would underplay their level of support in polling.

Election Forecast

UK Polling Report

Bet 2015

Conservatives

286 seats (-2 seats) | 34.0% vote (-0.1% vote) 265 seats (+12 seats) | 33% vote (No change) 276 seats (-1 seat)

Labour

273 seats (+2 seats) | 32.0% vote (+ 0.4% vote) 295 seats (-13 seats) | 32% vote  (-2% vote) 274 seats (+1 seat)

Lib Dems

 26 seats (No change) | 13.6% vote (No change) 19 seats (+1 seat) | 7% vote (No change) 31 seats (No change)

UKIP

 1 seat (No change) | 11% vote (-0.4% vote) 15% vote (No change) 3 seats (No change)

Greens

 1 seat (No change) | 3.9% vote (No change)  6% vote | No change 1 seat (No change)

SNP

 42 seats (No change) | 3.2% vote (No change)  40 seats (+3 seats) | 3.0% vote (No change) 41 seats (No change)

Others

 21 seats (No change) | 2.6% vote (+0.1% vote)  30 seats (+1 seat) | 3.0% vote (No change) 23 seats (No change)

There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls.

Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and elections. Please let me know if I’ve got something wrong and I’d be happy to correct where necessary.

Data taken at 13:00 on 16 March 2015 from:

Any mistakes in interpretation of the data are mine. I’d be happy to discuss and, if necessary correct.

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