Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 11 April 2015


Psephologist UK 2015

Headlines – Remarkably little movement in the polling. Election Forecast and Bet 2015 are both predicting a race that is so close that a dead heat is possible. The opinion polls suggest a wider spread, but with no commanding lead and certainly no easy coalition options.

Election Forecast

UK Polling Report

Bet 2015

Conservatives

281 seats (-1 seat) | 34.1% vote (-0.5% vote) 260 seats (+10 seats) | 34% vote (+1%) 277 seats (+1 seat)

Labour

277 seats (-1 seat) | 32.8% vote (-0.2% vote) 300 seats (-9 seats) | 34% vote  (No change) 275 seats (-1 seat)

Lib Dems

 28 seats (+2 seats) | 13.3% vote (-0.2%) 18 seats (-1 seat) | 8% vote (No change) 30 seats (No change)

UKIP

 1 seat (No change) | 10.3% vote (+0.8% vote) 14% vote (No change) 3 seats (No change)

Greens

 1 seat (No change) | 3.7% vote (No change)  5% vote (No change) 1 seat (No change)

SNP

41 seats (+1 seat) | 3.4% vote (+0.1%)  46 seats (No change) | 3% vote (No change) 41 seats (No change)

Others

 21 seats (-1 seat) | 2.4% vote (-0.1% vote)  26 seats (No change) | 3% vote (No change) 23 seats (No change)

There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls.

Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and elections. Please let me know if I’ve got something wrong and I’d be happy to correct where necessary.

Data taken at 13:00 on 16 March 2015 from:

Any mistakes in interpretation of the data are mine. I’d be happy to discuss and, if necessary correct.

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