Coronation portrait of Edward VIII (Illustrated London News)

The coronation that never was  

On 12 May 1937, Westminster Abbey rang with shouts acclaiming the new King-Emperor. In 1936, Britain had prepared for the coronation. Much of this effort was wasted when Edward VIII abdicated on 10 December 1936. Everyone had been getting ready for the coronation that never was.  The Coronation of a new King-Emperor promised a bonanza for British manufacturers. Factories that had been quiet during the darkest days of the Great Depression now hummed with […]


Election 2015 predictions

Election 2015 – predictions

So, that was that. Few pundits or pollsters showered themselves in glory. How did I do? Not very well! More Mystic Meg than Nostradamus. The Conservatives will win the most MPs, but will fall far short of a majority. The Conservatives did win the most MPs, but they also won a majority. The Conservatives will win 290 seats with a share of the vote above 34%. The Conservatives won 331 seats. Their 36.9% share […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 7 May 2015

Headlines – Election day! Final predictions are now in from our three poll of poll sources. The polls are: Remarkably stable; Remarkably consistent; Remarkably convergent; and Frustratingly inconclusive. You can now barely squeeze a ballot paper between the figures. If they are correct, the only workable coalitions are: left of centre rainbow coalitions (Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid and SDLP (plus maybe the Lib Dems to have a comfortable majority); Labour, SNP and Lib Dems […]


Election 2015 predictions

Election 2015 – My predictions

It is time to put my money where my mouth is. With one week to go until polling day, I’m going to make some specific predictions. I’m then going to put on bets for those predictions at the bookies. The Conservatives will win the most MPs, but will fall far short of a majority. The Conservatives will win 290 seats with a share of the vote above 34%. The Labour Party will […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 30 April 2015

Headlines – As you might expect, the predictions are finally falling into line. There are only 8 seats separating predictions for the Conservatives and 7 seats for Labour. Even if you take the best Conservative prediction with the worst Labour (or vice versa), it fails to produce anything close to a majority. It barely produces workable coalition mathematics (as shown by the FT’s running poll of polls based on Election Forecast). Election Forecast […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 20 April 2015

Headlines – If there has been any change following the debates and the launch of the manifestos, it has been an increase in support for the challenger parties. Plaid Cymru have increased their projected share of the vote and haul of MPs. UKIP’s share of the vote has stabilised after falling for a few weeks. But the biggest shift is north of the border, were the SNP are coming closer to a clean […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 11 April 2015

Headlines – Remarkably little movement in the polling. Election Forecast and Bet 2015 are both predicting a race that is so close that a dead heat is possible. The opinion polls suggest a wider spread, but with no commanding lead and certainly no easy coalition options. Election Forecast UK Polling Report Bet 2015 Conservatives 281 seats (-1 seat) | 34.1% vote (-0.5% vote) 260 seats (+10 seats) | 34% vote (+1%) 277 seats […]