Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – The SNP and Scotland’s 70 year itch

In 1935, the Unionist Party (the precursor to the Conservative Party in Scotland) won 42% of the vote in Scotland. They took half of the Scottish seats in the House of Commons. If you add their coalition partners in the National Government, they controlled 60% of the seats. The political map of Scotland was almost as blue as the Saltire. By 1997, the Conservatives had been completely wiped out north of the border. […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 28 March 2015

Headlines – The Labour Party’s position has been consolidated in the latest batch of polls. Only Election Forecast is currently predicting that the Conservatives will emerge from May’s ballot as the largest party. Ed Milliband’s recent comment that the two parties were ‘neck and neck’ is borne out by the polls and predictions. If the two main parties succeed in attracting two-thirds of the votes cast, they will be doing better than they […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 22 March 2015  

Headlines – A slight suggestion of movement to the Labour Party in the poll of poll of polls. There is still a huge range of predicted outcomes between the two largest parties – a range of 26 seats for the Conservatives and 27 for the Labour Party. Election Forecast UK Polling Report Bet 2015 Conservatives 286 seats (No change) | 34.4% vote (+0.4% vote) 260 seats (-5 seats) | 33% vote (No change) […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 16 March 2015  

Headlines No seismic shifts over the weekend, but both Election Forecast and UK Polling Report figures continue to drift towards the middle ground set out in the Bet 2015 forecast. If this is the case, Election Forecast’s blended model is overstating the Conservative vote and down playing Labour support. UK Polling Report’s focus on polls does the opposite whilst bookies are forecasting a tie for the two main parties. On interpretation of this […]


Psephologist UK

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 13 March 2015  

There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls. Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and […]


Psephologist UK

Why the Lib Dems will suffer and why they still matter  

On 5 May 2011, a referendum was held on whether we should change the way that we elect MPs in the UK. The push for some form of proportional representation was defeated by a resounding 2:1 margin on a less than impressive 42.2% turnout. As a result, May’s general election will be fought using the traditional method of ‘first past the post’. And, as usual, the composition of the resulting House of Commons […]


On This Day

In this week in history  

Anniversaries and historical milestones for the week 26 January – 1 February 2015  On 26 January 1998, President Clinton utters lines that would become famous: “I want to say one thing to the American people; I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky”.