Psephology


As the Grand Old Party winds down in Cleveland, Ohio, Republican supporters can take some comfort from the direction of polls in recent days. Although most polls and predictions continue to give Hillary Clinton a decent lead, it isn’t quite the commanding or comfortable position that she held a few weeks ago. More worrying for the Democrats is that the polls have narrowed in the key […]

US Presidential election – weekly polling round up – I




So, that was that. Few pundits or pollsters showered themselves in glory. How did I do? Not very well! More Mystic Meg than Nostradamus. The Conservatives will win the most MPs, but will fall far short of a majority. The Conservatives did win the most MPs, but they also won a majority. The Conservatives will win 290 seats with a share of the vote above 34%. The Conservatives […]

Election 2015 – predictions


Headlines – Election day! Final predictions are now in from our three poll of poll sources. The polls are: Remarkably stable; Remarkably consistent; Remarkably convergent; and Frustratingly inconclusive. You can now barely squeeze a ballot paper between the figures. If they are correct, the only workable coalitions are: left of centre rainbow coalitions (Labour, SNP, Greens, Plaid and SDLP (plus maybe the Lib Dems to have a comfortable […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 7 May 2015



It is time to put my money where my mouth is. With one week to go until polling day, I’m going to make some specific predictions. I’m then going to put on bets for those predictions at the bookies. The Conservatives will win the most MPs, but will fall far short of a majority. The Conservatives will win 290 seats with a share of the vote […]

Election 2015 – My predictions


Headlines – As you might expect, the predictions are finally falling into line. There are only 8 seats separating predictions for the Conservatives and 7 seats for Labour. Even if you take the best Conservative prediction with the worst Labour (or vice versa), it fails to produce anything close to a majority. It barely produces workable coalition mathematics (as shown by the FT’s running poll of polls […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 30 April 2015



Headlines – If there has been any change following the debates and the launch of the manifestos, it has been an increase in support for the challenger parties. Plaid Cymru have increased their projected share of the vote and haul of MPs. UKIP’s share of the vote has stabilised after falling for a few weeks. But the biggest shift is north of the border, were the SNP […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 20 April 2015


Headlines – Remarkably little movement in the polling. Election Forecast and Bet 2015 are both predicting a race that is so close that a dead heat is possible. The opinion polls suggest a wider spread, but with no commanding lead and certainly no easy coalition options. Election Forecast UK Polling Report Bet 2015 Conservatives 281 seats (-1 seat) | 34.1% vote (-0.5% vote) 260 seats (+10 seats) […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 11 April 2015



Headlines – The Leaders’ debate takes place this evening. For two hours from 8 pm, the nation will be glued to ITV to see seven politicians battle it out. Well, maybe not. A few million will watch the whole thing, and everyone else will see edited highlights, a couple of vaguely amusing gifs and some snarky Twitter comments. This is a snapshot of the poll of poll […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 2 April 2015


In 1935, the Unionist Party (the precursor to the Conservative Party in Scotland) won 42% of the vote in Scotland. They took half of the Scottish seats in the House of Commons. If you add their coalition partners in the National Government, they controlled 60% of the seats. The political map of Scotland was almost as blue as the Saltire. By 1997, the Conservatives had been completely […]

Election 2015 – The SNP and Scotland’s 70 year itch



Headlines – The Labour Party’s position has been consolidated in the latest batch of polls. Only Election Forecast is currently predicting that the Conservatives will emerge from May’s ballot as the largest party. Ed Milliband’s recent comment that the two parties were ‘neck and neck’ is borne out by the polls and predictions. If the two main parties succeed in attracting two-thirds of the votes cast, they […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 28 March 2015


Headlines – A slight suggestion of movement to the Labour Party in the poll of poll of polls. There is still a huge range of predicted outcomes between the two largest parties – a range of 26 seats for the Conservatives and 27 for the Labour Party. Election Forecast UK Polling Report Bet 2015 Conservatives 286 seats (No change) | 34.4% vote (+0.4% vote) 260 seats (-5 […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 22 March 2015



Headlines No seismic shifts over the weekend, but both Election Forecast and UK Polling Report figures continue to drift towards the middle ground set out in the Bet 2015 forecast. If this is the case, Election Forecast’s blended model is overstating the Conservative vote and down playing Labour support. UK Polling Report’s focus on polls does the opposite whilst bookies are forecasting a tie for the two […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 16 March 2015


There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls. Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 13 March 2015



On 5 May 2011, a referendum was held on whether we should change the way that we elect MPs in the UK. The push for some form of proportional representation was defeated by a resounding 2:1 margin on a less than impressive 42.2% turnout. As a result, May’s general election will be fought using the traditional method of ‘first past the post’. And, as usual, the composition […]

Why the Lib Dems will suffer and why they still matter