Daily Archives: April 30, 2015


It is time to put my money where my mouth is. With one week to go until polling day, I’m going to make some specific predictions. I’m then going to put on bets for those predictions at the bookies. The Conservatives will win the most MPs, but will fall far short of a majority. The Conservatives will win 290 seats with a share of the vote […]

Election 2015 – My predictions


Headlines – As you might expect, the predictions are finally falling into line. There are only 8 seats separating predictions for the Conservatives and 7 seats for Labour. Even if you take the best Conservative prediction with the worst Labour (or vice versa), it fails to produce anything close to a majority. It barely produces workable coalition mathematics (as shown by the FT’s running poll of polls […]

Election 2015 – Poll of poll of polls – 30 April 2015