Election Forecast UK Polling Report Bet 2015 Conservatives 286 seats (No change) | 34.4% vote (+0.4% vote) 260 seats (-5 seats) | 33% vote (No change) 276 seats (No change) Labour 276 seats (+3 seats) | 32.3% vote (+ 0.3% vote) 300 seats (+5 seats) | 33% vote (+1% vote) 273 seats (-1 seat) Lib Dems 26 seats (No change) | 13.6% vote (No change) 20 seats (+1 seat) | 8% vote (+1%) 31 seats (No […]
Headlines No seismic shifts over the weekend, but both Election Forecast and UK Polling Report figures continue to drift towards the middle ground set out in the Bet 2015 forecast. If this is the case, Election Forecast’s blended model is overstating the Conservative vote and down playing Labour support. UK Polling Report’s focus on polls does the opposite whilst bookies are forecasting a tie for the two main parties. On interpretation of this […]
There are a number of great websites that are collating data on voting intentions for 7 May’s general election. This series intends to track these poll of polls to try and pick up shifts, subtle changes and patterns. It is a poll of poll of polls. Note: Unlike the people behind the websites listed below, I am not an expert in statistics, odds and outcomes. I’m just very interested in psephology and […]
On 5 May 2011, a referendum was held on whether we should change the way that we elect MPs in the UK. The push for some form of proportional representation was defeated by a resounding 2:1 margin on a less than impressive 42.2% turnout. As a result, May’s general election will be fought using the traditional method of ‘first past the post’. And, as usual, the composition of the resulting House of Commons […]
Anniversaries and historical milestones for the week 26 January – 1 February 2015 On 26 January 1998, President Clinton utters lines that would become famous: “I want to say one thing to the American people; I did not have sexual relations with that woman, Miss Lewinsky”.
By 1935, the Nazi Party had consolidated its grip on the Third Reich. The Enabling Act and November 1933’s election made Hitler the supreme power in Germany. The Night of the Long Knives saw the party bear its murderous teeth to opposition but the regime’s brutality had been established from the outset; Dachau was founded immediately following Hitler’s appointment as Chancellor. So it was a very dangerous time for a decorated German […]
In 1919, London hosted a Victory Parade that marked a unique moment of national rejoicing, mourning and catharsis. The Parade, also known as the London Peace Parade, saw returning troops march through packed streets in the capital. The city’s iconic monuments were momentarily joined by a series of temporary structures erected to mark the march. One of these, a plain but elegant wood and plaster cenotaph erected on Whitehall, would strike such […]